Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

The widespread adoption of generative models such as Stable Diffusion and ChatGPT has made them increasingly attractive targets for malicious exploitation, particularly through data poisoning. Existing poisoning attacks compromising synthesised data typically either cause broad degradation of generated data or require control over the training process, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel data poisoning technique called associative poisoning, which compromises fine-grained features of the generated data without requiring control of the training process. This attack perturbs only the training data to manipulate statistical associations between specific feature pairs in the generated outputs. We provide a formal mathematical formulation of the attack and prove its theoretical feasibility and stealthiness. Empirical evaluations using two state-of-the-art generative models demonstrate that associative poisoning effectively induces or suppresses feature associations while preserving the marginal distributions of the targeted features and maintaining high-quality outputs, thereby evading visual detection. These results suggest that generative systems used in image synthesis, synthetic dataset generation, and natural language processing are susceptible to subtle, stealthy manipulations that compromise their statistical integrity. To address this risk, we examine the limitations of existing defensive strategies and propose a novel countermeasure strategy.

Counterfactual explanations play a pivotal role in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) by offering intuitive, human-understandable alternatives that elucidate machine learning model decisions. Despite their significance, existing methods for generating counterfactuals often require constant access to the predictive model, involve computationally intensive optimization for each instance and lack the flexibility to adapt to new user-defined constraints without retraining. In this paper, we propose DiCoFlex, a novel model-agnostic, conditional generative framework that produces multiple diverse counterfactuals in a single forward pass. Leveraging conditional normalizing flows trained solely on labeled data, DiCoFlex addresses key limitations by enabling real-time user-driven customization of constraints such as sparsity and actionability at inference time. Extensive experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that DiCoFlex outperforms existing methods in terms of validity, diversity, proximity, and constraint adherence, making it a practical and scalable solution for counterfactual generation in sensitive decision-making domains.

Mixed-integer programming (MIP) has emerged as a powerful framework for learning optimal decision trees. Yet, existing MIP approaches for regression tasks are either limited to purely binary features or become computationally intractable when continuous, large-scale data are involved. Naively binarizing continuous features sacrifices global optimality and often yields needlessly deep trees. We recast the optimal regression-tree training as a two-stage optimization problem and propose Reduced-Space Optimal Regression Trees (RS-ORT) - a specialized branch-and-bound (BB) algorithm that branches exclusively on tree-structural variables. This design guarantees the algorithm's convergence and its independence from the number of training samples. Leveraging the model's structure, we introduce several bound tightening techniques - closed-form leaf prediction, empirical threshold discretization, and exact depth-1 subtree parsing - that combine with decomposable upper and lower bounding strategies to accelerate the training. The BB node-wise decomposition enables trivial parallel execution, further alleviating the computational intractability even for million-size datasets. Based on the empirical studies on several regression benchmarks containing both binary and continuous features, RS-ORT also delivers superior training and testing performance than state-of-the-art methods. Notably, on datasets with up to 2,000,000 samples with continuous features, RS-ORT can obtain guaranteed training performance with a simpler tree structure and a better generalization ability in four hours.

This paper studies prediction with multiple candidate models, where the goal is to combine their outputs. This task is especially challenging in heterogeneous settings, where different models may be better suited to different inputs. We propose input adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging (IA-BMA), a Bayesian method that assigns model weights conditional on the input. IA-BMA employs an input adaptive prior, and yields a posterior distribution that adapts to each prediction, which we estimate with amortized variational inference. We derive formal guarantees for its performance, relative to any single predictor selected per input. We evaluate IABMA across regression and classification tasks, studying data from personalized cancer treatment, credit-card fraud detection, and UCI datasets. IA-BMA consistently delivers more accurate and better-calibrated predictions than both non-adaptive baselines and existing adaptive methods. Many applications require adaptive predictions. In personalized medicine, different patients respond differently to the same treatment (Mahajan et al., 2023); in fairness-sensitive domains, predictions need to adapt to subpopulations (Wang et al., 2019; Grother et al., 2019); and in fraud detection, behavioral data is often heteroskedastic and varies substantially across inputs (V armedja et al., 2019).

With the rise of Speech Large Language Models (SpeechLLMs), two dominant approaches have emerged for speech processing: discrete tokens and continuous features. Each approach has demonstrated strong capabilities in audio-related processing tasks. However, the performance gap between these two paradigms has not been thoroughly explored. To address this gap, we present a fair comparison of self-supervised learning (SSL)-based discrete and continuous features under the same experimental settings. We evaluate their performance across six spoken language understanding-related tasks using both small and large-scale LLMs (Qwen1.5-0.5B and Llama3.1-8B). We further conduct in-depth analyses, including efficient comparison, SSL layer analysis, LLM layer analysis, and robustness comparison. Our findings reveal that continuous features generally outperform discrete tokens in various tasks. Each speech processing method exhibits distinct characteristics and patterns in how it learns and processes speech information. We hope our results will provide valuable insights to advance spoken language understanding in SpeechLLMs.

Current deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approaches achieve state-of-the-art performance in various domains, but struggle with data efficiency compared to human learning, which leverages core priors about objects and their interactions. Active inference offers a principled framework for integrating sensory information with prior knowledge to learn a world model and quantify the uncertainty of its own beliefs and predictions. However, active inference models are usually crafted for a single task with bespoke knowledge, so they lack the domain flexibility typical of DRL approaches. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel architecture that integrates a minimal yet expressive set of core priors about object-centric dynamics and interactions to accelerate learning in low-data regimes. The resulting approach, which we call AXIOM, combines the usual data efficiency and interpretability of Bayesian approaches with the across-task generalization usually associated with DRL. AXIOM represents scenes as compositions of objects, whose dynamics are modeled as piecewise linear trajectories that capture sparse object-object interactions. The structure of the generative model is expanded online by growing and learning mixture models from single events and periodically refined through Bayesian model reduction to induce generalization. AXIOM masters various games within only 10,000 interaction steps, with both a small number of parameters compared to DRL, and without the computational expense of gradient-based optimization.

Feature generation involves creating new features from raw data to capture complex relationships among the original features, improving model robustness and machine learning performance. Current methods using reinforcement learning for feature generation have made feature exploration more flexible and efficient. However, several challenges remain: first, during feature expansion, a large number of redundant features are generated. When removing them, current methods only retain the best features each round, neglecting those that perform poorly initially but could improve later. Second, the state representation used by current methods fails to fully capture complex feature relationships. Third, there are significant differences between discrete and continuous features in tabular data, requiring different operations for each type. To address these challenges, we propose a novel dual-agent reinforcement learning method for feature generation. Two agents are designed: the first generates new features, and the second determines whether they should be preserved. A self-attention mechanism enhances state representation, and diverse operations distinguish interactions between discrete and continuous features. The experimental results on multiple datasets demonstrate that the proposed method is effective. The code is available at https://github.com/extess0/DARL.